Does China Have a Timeline for Taking Over Taiwan?
After a pro-independence candidate wins the election in Taiwan, China’s messaging reiterates the eventual goal of “reunification” – with force if necessary – but does not specify when.
The results of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential elections on January 13 were not off too much from public opinion polls. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te, whom China did not favor, won the election with a plurality of 40.05%. Since the DPP is a party that promotes Taiwan’s independence, analysts have warned that a DPP victory could signal new risks: as Derek Grossman of the Rand Corporation wrote in 2021, Lai Ching-te’s presidency in Taiwan meant “the odds of China taking military action against Taiwan will only grow.” As a Lai presidency becomes a reality, so does the question: what are the real odds that China will take military action for “reunification” with Taiwan?
The Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council issued a statement on election day on the results of the Taiwan election. The document appears to “downplay” the outcome of the election, as an analysis from the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) pointed out. The statement reaffirmed its long-term reunification goal but appeared to accept the short-term reality of the DPP presidency. It read, “Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change; the Chinese government’s position of upholding the one-China principle and opposing “Taiwan independence” separatism, ‘two Chinas” and “one China, one Taiwan’ will not change.” On the day of the election, Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, further confirmed “our (China) stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing (achieving) national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock,” the English-language version of China state media Xinhua News reported .
In the meantime, the possibility that China could use force over Taiwan remains in play. During the first Taiwan Affairs Office press conference of 2024, taking place three days after the Taiwan election, spokesperson Chen Binhua reiterated China’s position that “ ‘peaceful reunification and one country, two systems’ ” is our basic approach to resolving the Taiwan question,” he appeared to say the DPP victory does not represent the will of the Taiwanese people and portrayed the DPP’s anti-China policies as a product of fringe elements or foreign agitators. He said, “we are not committed to renouncing the use of force…against the interference of external forces and the very small number of separatists for ‘Taiwan independence’ and their separatist activities”; but he assured that any force would not be directed “against our compatriots in Taiwan,” apparently referring to the Taiwanese people more broadly (hxxp://www.gwytb.gov[.]cn/m/speech/202401/t20240117_12594357.htm). This statement about the use of force remains consistent with in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2022. (see below)
What are Xi’s thoughts on Taiwan “reunification” and the use of force over Taiwan?
From 2021 to January 2024 several notable statements from Xi Jinping suggested his official lines have not changed much: that complete reunification is inevitable and that China reserves the option to use force to achieve it.
January 1, 2021: implemented newly revised National Defense Law (国防法) to defend China using military forces with whoever prevents the CCP from unifying Taiwan and whoever affects China’s development interests.
The revised National Defense law added two key terms, “separatism” (分裂) and “development interests” (发展利益) to the original Article 2. The new text stated, “The State’s military activities are to prevent and resist aggression, prevent armed subversion and separatism, and defend national sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, security, and development interests.” The term “separatism” – elsewhere translated “division” or “disruption” – points to Taiwan’s claim to independence and possibly also to separatism in China’s mainly Muslim Xinjiang region and Tibet, while the term “development interests” includes China’s increasing presence in areas such as the South China Sea, according to the Jamestown Foundation, a US think tank. The US Defense Department’s Annual Report to Congress for 2021 adds that the National Defense Law revisions “tasked the PLA with defending ‘overseas development interests’, further cementing the PLA’s involvement in the PRC’s global economic and diplomatic activities.” The Natto Team notes that the original Chinese text does not explicitly use the term “overseas.” However, as the Defense Department report notes, the term ‘development interests’ is “a vague term commonly understood to include anything that impacts the PRC’s security and economy internationally” and that its addition to the revised National Defense Law is “intended to add legitimacy to the use of military force to defend the PRC’s economic interests abroad.”
October 16, 2022, “reserves the option to take all measures necessary.”
During his speech to the 20th National Congress of the CCP, Xi summarized the country’s efforts against “secession and interference,” the determination and capability to “safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity” to oppose “Taiwan independence” in the past five years since the 19th National Congress. “(We) further master the strategic initiative to achieve reunification of the motherland.” Xi repeatedly reinforced the narrative that “complete reunification of our country is the Party’s unswerving historical task, the common aspiration of all Chinese and the inevitable requirement for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
As to how to complete “reunification,” Xi stated: “We insist on striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and effort, but we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures, which are aimed at the interference of external forces and the very small number of separatist elements for the independence of Taiwan and their secessionist activities, and in no way at the vast majority of our compatriots in Taiwan.”
Mid November 2023: no plans for military action
In November 2023, when US President Biden and Xi met in San Francisco, California, Xi “rejected American reports that Beijing was planning for military action against Taiwan in 2027 or 2035,” Taiwan based media Straits Times reported, citing a senior US official. “‘He basically said there are no such plans, and that no one had informed him about them,’ the official told reporters, adding that Mr. Xi had displayed a hint of irritation in his remarks.” Xi’s denial could be seen as an attempt to lull the US into complacency at that moment, since this was the first meeting between the two leaders in a year. Also, no military action against Taiwan in 2027 or 2035 does not mean no military action against Taiwan in some other year.
● January 1, 2024: “reunification,” “a historical inevitability.”
In his 2024 New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,” (祖国统一是历史必然(hxxp://www.gwytb.gov[.]cn/topone/202312/t20231231_12590901.htm).
Does China Have in Mind a Timeline for Taking Over Taiwan?
Media reports, analysts and commentators in both English and Chinese languages have been speculating on possible timelines for China’s use of military force over Taiwan. These timelines were mostly based on significant dates and anniversaries and ciphering through Chinese official documents.
2027 timeline
The year 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). US intelligence shows that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan, but that “doesn’t mean that Xi has decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,” the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) William Burns said in an interview in February 2023.
Researching media reports in China, the Natto Team found China did set goals for military modernization by that date. Xi has stressed “persistent efforts to strive ahead with diligence to realize the goals set for the PLA’s 100th anniversary.” Xi called for “new advances in building stronger armed forces to shore up the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” (hxxp://english.scio.gov[.]cn/m/topnews/2022-07/29/content_78346731.htm)
However, Russia’s experience in its war with Ukraine has given doubts to Xi about the PLA’s ability to fight, according to Burns. The US Defense Department report for 2021 also portrays this goal as the leadership’s attempt to keep its options open rather than to set a firm timeline: “In 2020, the PLA added a new milestone for modernization in 2027, to accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization of the PRC’s armed forces, which if realized would provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency.”
2035 timeline:
The media speculations that China aimed to take Taiwan over by 2035 was based on at least two factors.
One is China’s goal to “achieve modernization of national defense and the military” among its goals for 2035 in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the Vision 3035 document. (hxxp://www.xinhuanet[.]com/2021-03/13/c_1127205564_17.htm)
The other is China’s goal to connect Taipei, Taiwan to mainland China through a tunnel and high-speed railroad by 2035. China has been planning the Taiwan Strait Tunnel Project for over a decade. Construction has already begun in mainland China side on a high speed rail from Fuzhou, Fujian province to Taipei, Taiwan , featured in the “Outline of the National Comprehensive Transportation Network Plan” (2021-2035) 《国家综合立体交通网规划纲要》: that was part of the 14th Five Year Plan released in February 2021. “The mainland is not just talking on paper about building a high-speed railroad to Taiwan, and the planned Pingtan section of the Beijing-Taiwan high-speed railroad between Fuzhou to Pingtan was completed and opened to traffic in October 2020,” according to Singapore-based media outlet Lian He Zao Bao.
The Pingtan Times, a local newspaper, reported that the Pingtan section of the Beijing-Taiwan Expressway, which has already been fully opened, with the future goal of building an undersea tunnel from Pingtan to Taipei. Pingtan Island is at the crossroads of the Taiwan Strait and is the nearest island to Taiwan from mainland China, which itself is only 68 nautical miles away from Taiwan.
2049 timeline
The year 2049 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Since the beginning of his presidency, Xi Jinping has had the goal of achieving “national rejuvenation” by 2049. “When the PRC marks its centenary…the dream of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will then be realized,” (https://www.neac.gov.cn/seac/c103372/202201/1156514.shtml), Xi said in a speech in November 2012.
In his report to the CCP’s 20th National Congress in 2022, Xi stated, “The complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable requirement for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and it is the unswerving historical mission of the Communist Party of China (CPC).” He added, “The wheels of history are rolling on toward China’s reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Complete reunification of our country must be realized, and it can, without doubt, be realized.” This means “reunification” should happen before achieving “the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
Party officials, following Xi’s lead, claim that the entire Chinese people longs for both “reunification” and “rejuvenation.” Liu Junchuan, director of the Liaison Bureau of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said in a 2017 front-page article in the Study Times, a CCP party building newspaper (hxxp://theory.people.com[.]cn/n1/2017/1225/c40531-29726278.html): “without the realization of the complete reunification of the motherland, there can be no talk of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the true sense of the word, and the Chinese dream that the Chinese nation has been longing for will not be fulfilled.” According to this messaging, as long as China's rejuvenation is planned for no later than 2049, the reunification will also take place no later than 2049, as a Chinese unofficial commentary notes.
The timeline is whenever China’s red line is challenged.
China has repeatedly warned that if “Taiwan independence” forces and the United States continue to “play with fire,” the time for the cross-strait reunification may be greatly advanced (hxxp://world.people.com[.]cn/n1/2022/0818/c1002-32505144.html). After the speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, the Chinese Minister of Defense made the stern statement that the PLA would “not hesitate to fight” when necessary. As the Natto Team previously pointed out, US President Joe Biden has stated that the US would defend Taiwan if China invaded it; yet at the same time the official US position continues to adhere to the “one China” doctrine, refraining from recognizing Taiwan as an independent country.
The fact that China cut off military-to-military communication and several other channels of dialogue after US Representative Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan shows the depth of their outrage at that visit. China’s leaders likely saw Pelosi’s visit as particularly threatening because it was a top US political figure defying the cautious official US government stance.
Well, it looks as if Chinese President Xi Jinping is definitely signaling willingness to use military force to solve “the Taiwan question.” The question is when the right time is and whether China has the economic conditions and military power to fight.