Horse Therapy for War Trauma; Chinese Military Shakeup; Russian Cybercriminals in Turkey; China's "Combat Talent"

What We’re Reading, Hearing, and Watching – September 21, 2023

Sep 22, 2023

Healing With Horses

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, and as multilateral organizations discuss the huge task of the country’s physical rebuilding, local efforts continue to offer respite and restoration for traumatized fighters and refugees. One such effort takes place in stables and paddocks. Hippotherapy and other equine-assisted services, such as the Spirit Rehabilitation Center near Kyiv and a program at the Dergachev Sports School near Kharkiv, have sought to help veterans, their families, and refugees.

Riding and working with horses can work marvels for wounded bodies and psyches. It gives people traumatized by war a respite from their everyday troubles, forces them to project calm authority to the animals, and bolsters their self-esteem. They sleep better and smile more, say the therapists. After one such session, “One soldier said it made him happy, an emotion he never expected to feel again,” the New York Times reported in August.

Spirit Rehabilitation Center opened in 2010 to provide services for children with disabilities. After the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it began to offer veterans’ programs as well; however, funding is unstable and “the center is constantly looking for sponsors,” Ukrainian media reported in summer 2023. “Spirit” signed a cooperation agreement with Ukraine’s military-psychological administration in July, which may prolong funding for the “Spirit Warrior” program. Nearly 600 defenders had passed through Spirit’s “Spirit Warrior” program by early September 2023. For many, this was only a brief restorative moment before a return to the front lines. If funds hold out after the war, horses may be able to play a role in a deeper healing of war-scarred Ukrainians.

A person on a horse

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Screenshot taken September 15 2023 from Сюжет про іпотерапію для військових в "Єдиних новинах" (Story about hippotherapy for the military in “United News”), story date August 7 2023, posted 20 August 2023 by YouTube Channel “Центр іпотерапії СПИРИТ” (SPIRIT Hippotherapy Center), https://www.youtube[.]com/watch?v=5cir4jvWLc4, minute 0:22

The therapeutic use of horses is not unique to Ukraine. Russian media have reported model hippotherapy sessions for veterans in Russian regions of Tula and Yugra as well. Equine-assisted learning and therapy programs in other countries, such as Spirit Open Equestrian in the Washington DC suburbs, also have programs for veterans.

Does the Disappearance of China’s Defense Minister Open a Channel for US-China Military Communication?

Li Shangfu (李尚福), China’s Defense Minister, who was appointed to the position in March this year, has not been seen since August 29. Li’s last appearance was to attend and give a speech at the 3^rd China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing. (hxxp://www.mod.gov[.]cn/gfbw/gc/lsf/2023_244324/16248648.html) As the Defense Minister, Li is responsible for representing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Central Military Commission (CMC) in military exchange and cooperation with foreign militaries but has no command authority over the PLA. Media outside China has been speculating on Li Shangfu’s whereabouts and what his absence means for the political and military affairs under Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Both Reuters and the Wall Street Journal reported Li’s disappearance, citing sources from China, including “people in direct contact with the Chinese military” as saying that Li was under investigation related to procurement of military equipment. Previously, Li served as the head of the Equipment Development Department of CMC from 2017 to 2022 and was involved in weapons development and procurement, which was a “fertile ground for corruption.” His disappearance could be related to corruption. The United States imposed sanctions on Li in 2018 for his role in China’s purchase of Russian combat aircraft and missile equipment.

Natto Thoughts discussed previously that one of the reasons for the halt of US-China military-to-military talks was China’s demand for a removal of sanctions against Li to create the “necessary atmosphere and conditions” for any military talks with the US. If the removal of Li Shangfu from his minister post is confirmed, it seems that at least one condition is met for US-China military communication. Could the communication restart?

To Talk or Not to Talk: In US-China Communication Breakdown, Taiwan Question is the “Core of the Core”

Natto Team

July 7, 2023

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In July, Chinese officials gave no reason when they announced the investigation and removal of General Li Yuchao, Commander of PLA’s Rocket Forces, and political commissar Xu Zhongbo. Now Li’s disappearance and the likelihood of another top PLA leadership personnel reshuffle suggest that Chinese President Xi Jinping is constantly working to ensure his absolute power. Will Xi’s anticorruption campaign of recent months and this apparent recent attempt to increase his control over the military make the PLA a more capable, combat-ready force than they were before, as some experts assessed? It may be too soon to tell.

Synergy Between Russian Draft Evaders and Cybercrime Groups in Turkey

After Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government ordered a partial military mobilization in September 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to other countries. (Some tens of thousands of Ukrainian draft-age men have also left their country, some of them after apparently bribing military officials for medical exemptions). Natto Team predicted that some of these émigrés could gravitate toward criminal activity in their host countries and contribute to an evolving global criminal ecosystem. Turkey in particular — with its easy residency and business requirements and “’lax’ regulations on illicit money”-- has long been a stomping ground for mafia groups from former Soviet countries.

Cybercriminals have recently flourished there as well, the Financial Times reported on September 10, citing Turkish security researchers and law enforcement. Some of the Russian migrants “turned to relatively low-level online scams and fraud to support themselves, pairing up with established Turkish counterparts to avoid detection, launder their earnings and sell credentials harvested from computers around the world.” Russian cybercriminals and their Turkish counterparts have reportedly “fed off each others’ skills to create cartels that are chipping away at the monopolies of better-known traditional Russian and Belarusian gangs.”

In one example, thieves hid so-called Redline malware in malicious versions of pirated software or video games, then used it to steal identification cookies and obtain passwords from their victims. The stolen data has flooded a cybercriminal marketplace known as the Underground Cloud of Logs, according to Israeli researcher Osher Assor.

China’s Cybersecurity Week: Combat Talent in Short Supply

China held its annual Cybersecurity Week in the week of September 11. Launched in 2014 by the Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Cyberspace Administration of China and other relevant government organs, the cybersecurity week is a nationwide campaign that aims to raise cybersecurity awareness and increase cybersecurity capacity. This year’s Cybersecurity week focused on cloud computing and automobile data security. During the week, the organizers issued a “2023 Cybersecurity Industry Talent Report” (the Talent Report), based largely on data from Chinese online recruitment services provider Zhaopin. Some noteworthy information from the Talent Report includes the following:

Over 200 colleges and universities in China have established cybersecurity-related majors. As of March 2023, 80 colleges and universities in China have network security majors, 132 have information security majors, 2 have cryptographic technology majors, 17 have information countermeasures majors, and 28 have cybersecurity and law enforcement majors.
The top three skills required in talent recruitment in the cybersecurity research and development field are knowledge of Linux, Java and Windows.
Beijing is the city where a quarter of the total cybersecurity talent resides, followed by Chengdu, Shenzhen and Shanghai. Natto Thoughts notes Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai are where the major IT industry located, but Chengdu is well-known as an important military industrial base .
The largest share of talent consisted of graduates from Beijing Institute of Technology in 2023, followed by the University of Electronic Science and Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, and Zhengzhou University.
34 percent of cybersecurity practitioners have participated in cybersecurity contests to improve their skills.

This information from the Talent Report suggests that China has established a growing talent pipeline to serve the cybersecurity industry. The Talent Report uses the term 实战人才 which is usually translated into English as “practitioners.” However, the term literally means “combat talent.” This shows that China needs talent with experience playing roles in offensive or defensive cyber conflict. However, the report says such combat talent is in short supply. The report mentioned various training programs, particularly cybersecurity competitions, provide opportunities to nurture “combat talent”, improve their skills and exchange knowhow. Natto Thoughts notes that prominent competitions include the Tianfu Cup and Qiangwang Cup .

Natto Thoughts