The East Is Rising – Or Is It? Plus “Obituary Pirates,” Russian Information Warfare “Strategy Without Design,” The New Climate Denial, and How Libraries Arm the Elderly Against Disinformation

Natto Thoughts for the Week – February 1, 2024

Last Sunday’s newspapers landed with a heavy thump on the driveway, threatening to overwhelm the reader with the sheer weight of wrenching world events, deep analyses and passionate opinions. Several items from the past weekend’s news point to complex realities that no single headline can fully capture. Plus, we highlight some recent news about disinformation.

The East Is Rising – Or Is It?

 “Russia Projects Confidence as it Pursues Alliances to Undermine West”: This headline appeared above the fold on the front page of the January 28 Washington Post. The article highlights Russia’s ongoing efforts to win the soul of the Global South, but the “confidence” the author found in Putin may instead be aspirational bluster.

The author, Catherine Belton, has had a distinguished career with the Financial Times and the Washington Post, and her 2020 book Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and then Took on the West sparked multiple defamation lawsuits from Russian oligarchs. In the new analysis Belton writes, 

Russia is increasingly confident that deepening economic and diplomatic ties with China and the Global South will allow it to challenge the international financial system dominated by the United States and undermine the West, according to Kremlin documents and interviews with Russian officials and business executives.... 

Officials in Moscow point to growing trade with China, military cooperation with Iran, diplomatic outreach in the Arab world and the expansion of the BRICS grouping of major emerging economies — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia..... 

....Internal Russian Security Council documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post, show that the Kremlin convened meetings in 2022 and 2023 on ways to undermine the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. The ultimate goal, one of the documents stated, was to dismantle the post-World War II global financial system and the power it gives Washington. ‘One of the most important tasks is to create a new world order’, one of the documents dated April 3, 2023, states....

.... Another document...envisioned Beijing and Moscow creating a new financial system and a Eurasian digital currency based on alternative payment systems, such as blockchain, to bypass the Western dominance of global financial transactions....

Russian billionaires like Oleg Deripaska, who initially publicly spoke in opposition to the war in Ukraine, saying it would lead to economic crisis in Russia, now describe Russia’s break with the West as a catalyst for reshaping global economic patterns.

“Alternative payment systems and debt markets will be created: In China on the basis of the yuan, and in India and the Middle East on the basis of cryptocurrencies,” Deripaska wrote on Jan. 20 on Telegram, the messaging app. “In a few years, sanctions will no longer be a brake on global trade and investment.”

Reports about the end of the western-dominated world financial order attract reader eyeballs. In its “Today’s Top Trending Headlines” on January 29, The New York Times listed an interview with “attention-grabbing” financial analyst Richard X. Bove, who predicted, “The dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency” and who endorses cryptocurrency instead. Reader interest in Belton’s article and Bove’s prediction aligns with the trend the Natto Team discussed in “History and Hope” — a sense of eroding confidence in the supposedly inevitable march toward a liberal Western-style global order. However, other events documented in the same weekend newspapers provide additional context and perspective to consider how much this seeming trend aligns with reality.

Long-Term Aspirations

The Russian statements Belton cites may show an increasing sense of urgency, but most of these aspirations are long-standing. Since at least the late 1990s, Russia and China have called for moving toward a “multipolar world” to replace the US-dominated world order. For well over a decade, Russia and China have made fitful efforts to “de-dollarize” their economies and reduce their reliance on Western-based payment processing systems. Granted, this process accelerated after many Russian banks were shut out of international payments systems following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia has indeed increased its integration with payments systems in countries like China and Iran. But progress toward these aspirations is far from certain.

Battles for Influence in Global South Continue

Belton cites Putin’s confident rhetoric that Russia enjoys growing influence in the so-called Global South countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America at the expense of leading Western countries, especially after the outbreak of the Mideast war in October. “In Moscow’s view, the U.S. backing of Israel’s invasion of Gaza has damaged Washington’s standing in many parts of the world....” This is clearly true; as Natto Thoughts previously pointed out, the Mideast conflict indeed plays into Putin’s hands by increasing disillusionment with the West among countries of the Global South and by sowing division among political activists, distracting from criticism of Russia itself. At the same time, events in China and in several African countries, highlighted in the weekend newspapers, showed that decision-makers in those countries have not necessarily cast their lot firmly with Russia. 

China’s Support Has Limits

Belton points out that China’s intentions may not match Moscow’s rhetoric: “European security officials said that Moscow is very much Beijing’s junior partner and that it is unclear China has any real interest in aligning with the Kremlin’s grandiose visions.” Similarly, in a January 27 column, the Washington Post’s Fareed Zakaria pointed out that China has moderated its rhetoric in recent months. As Zakaria points out, in early 2021 Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “The East is rising and the West is declining” and portrayed the United States as “the biggest threat to our country’s development and security,” but during his November 2023 visit to the United States, “Xi publicly declared to an audience of American business executives that China has no intention or desire to replace the United States as the global hegemon.” Zakaria asserts, “[China] must see that its “wolf warrior” diplomacy has failed, alienating people from India to Australia to Germany. A recent Pew Research Center study showed that 22 of the 24 countries surveyed viewed the United States more favorably than they did China.” 

We should not read too much into a single speech given to a single audience. Zakaria’s commentary makes much of this phrase from Xi’s speech to the executives (https://english.news[.]cn/20231116/e8430b6ab19146f4a15bbed8465530bc/c.html): “China has no intention to challenge the United States or to unseat it.” However, in the following sentence, Xi added, “Likewise, the United States should not bet against China, or interfere in China's internal affairs” – likely referring to US support for Taiwan and criticism of China’s human rights violations. As Natto Thoughts has pointed out, China steadfastly claims Taiwan as its own and has used sympathetic influencers in a “smokeless war” to influence audiences in both Western countries and the Global South. Shortly before Xi’s 2023 visit, US media reported on a Chinese government campaign that analysts have dubbed “Spamouflage,” which uses online trolls and social media accounts posing as ordinary Americans to harass critics, discredit US politicians, and disparage businesses that disadvantage China. Nevertheless, the gushy praise for US-China friendship in Xi’s November 2023 speech does suggest Xi is hedging his bets about the decline of the West.

Although China has indeed helped Russia evade sanctions through ramped-up trade, that support also comes with limits. After US President Joe Biden signed a late-December executive order increasing secondary sanctions against “financial facilitators of Russia’s war machine,” at least two Chinese state-owned banks “ordered a review of their Russian business in recent weeks,” Bloomberg has reported, citing “people familiar with the matter.” Bloomberg’s sources said that at least some Chinese banks “will sever ties with clients on the sanctions list and will stop providing any financial services to the Russian military industry.” In another setback for China-Russia trade, the long-planned “Power of Siberia 2”  (PS-2)  gas pipeline to China, first discussed in 2020, is experiencing delays amid recalculations of costs and benefits, the Financial Times reported, citing Mongolia’s Prime Minister. In addition, media reports since late 2023 describe Russian oil tankers idling in limbo due to Western sanctions on payments infrastructure, as Indian state-owned refiners debated whether to pay in Emirati dirhams or in the currency of the hated Chinese. Turkish banks also have reportedly begun closing corporate accounts and suspending payment processing for some Russian  entities.

Each of these actions and statements is enmeshed in a particular context, and analyzing the intentions of any country’s leadership can be complex. The Natto Team continues to monitor and assess Russian and Chinese policies, their relationships, and implications for global security. Recent topics have included the resumption of US-China military-to-military talks, whether China has a timetable for absorbing Taiwan, and how Russia and China interact in Africa.

Competition for Influence in Africa: 

As for Russia’s influence on Africa, Russian officials have promoted the so-called Africa Corps under the Russian Defense Ministry to maintain the influence that the now-defunct Russian mercenary group Wagner won for Russia in countries such as Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. On January 27 Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their intention to quit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a move that “reverses decades of regional integration….and is likely to deepen the three junta-led countries' ties with Russia,” as Reuters reported. However, the New York Times that arrived on the doorstep on Sunday also announced that the US had inked new agreements with Angola, including for a solar panel project and other “green” initiatives. This appears as a diplomatic win for the United States, as Angola, a traditionally fossil fuel-exporting country, historically had strong relationships with the Soviet Union and with China. It is unclear whether events like this will stem the erosion of Western influence in Africa. It is also unclear how Russia’s influence in Africa will evolve in comparison with that of China – as the Natto Team discussed here. (For more on the role the Wagner group played in global conflicts, see “The Code of the Underworld,” “Russia After Putin: Dictatorship, Democracy, or Chaos?” and “​​Vocabulary of Mutiny, Mafia and Misery”).

Confidence or Desperation?

Putin’s projection of confidence could also mask insecurity. US Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns recently wrote, “Although Putin’s repressive grip does not seem likely to weaken anytime soon, his war in Ukraine is quietly corroding his power at home….disaffection with the war is continuing to gnaw away at the Russian leadership and the Russian people.” The March presidential election in Russia will likely be a rubber-stamp victory for Putin, but nevertheless election seasons still represent periods of uncertainty and tension. Earlier in January the Natto Team pointed to signs of brittleness in Putin’s rule, such as an egg supply crisis. Protests have broken out over soldiers’ long-term deployments; lack of heat in entire neighborhoods; and the arrest of an activist in the region of Bashkortostan. In advance of the March presidential election, some two hundred thousand Russians have signed petitions for the candidacy of Boris Nadezhdin, who has said Russia should “start peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West” and has also criticized Putin’s anti-LGBTQ+ policies. Though analysts fear he is merely the latest in a series of “tame liberal” or “decorative” candidates whom the Kremlin allows to run but never allows to win, the long lines waiting to sign Nadezhdin’s petitions point to quiet popular discontent with Putin’s policies.  

Disinformation News: “Obituary Pirates,” Russian Information Warfare “Strategy Without Design,” The New Climate Denial, and How Libraries Arm the Elderly Against Disinformation

The Natto Team’s three-part “Disinformation Handbook” surveyed online disinformation tactics and suggested ways that users can detect and avoid disinformation. New reports and analyses come out every day. Below are just a few recent ones:

“He Died in a Tragic Accident. Why Did the Internet Say He Was Murdered?”

This New York Times article from January 25 features an India-based group of “obituary pirates” who used artificial intelligence tools to scan lists of trending Google search topics, create false stories about them, and capitalize on the attention for online advertising. This technique resembles the “keyword curation” tactic mentioned in the Natto Team’s Disinformation Handbook. Although the “pirates” in the January 25 article appear to be financially motivated, this method could also facilitate panic-mongering for political purposes such as the information warfare described in the IWC article below. The Natto Team has discussed panic mongering here.

“Russian Information Warfare Strategy: New IWC Translation Gives Insights into Vulnerabilities”

…Information warfare is a set of methods, through a coordinated concept and plan, to influence all segments of an enemy’s population and government in order to distort their worldview, to weaken and destroy the foundations of their national identity and way of life, with the goal of disrupting their ability to resist aggression.

This quote appeared in a 2016 article entitled “Informational Support for National Security: Information Warfare Strategy” in the Russian academic journal National Security/nota bene. On January 23  the Irregular Warfare Center (IWC) at the US Defense Department’s Defense Security Cooperation University published a translation of the article and drew on it for an analysis of the “Russian Way of Information Warfare.” The IWC authors summarize their analysis as follows:

First, this IWC Insights will begin by examining a past example of Russian OIE [Operations in the Information Environment] and how the West responded. 

Second, the article analyzes how the Western understanding of Russian information warfare strategy has evolved over time, as well as some misconceptions about it that have pervaded. 

Third, it analyzes some of the key concepts raised in a translated article from Russia on information warfare, and how they can be connected to ongoing events in Ukraine. 

Finally, it will briefly discuss some potential vulnerabilities in Russia’s information warfare approach and how they can be taken advantage of to counter such strategies. 

The report opens with a case study of a Russian information operation during the 2016 US presidential election; to inflame discord within the state of Texas, Russian operatives simultaneously created Facebook pages spreading politically opposing views: one “protesting the perceived Islamization of Texas, and the other in support of the Islamic community.” These fabricated pages encouraged activists to attend competing rallies, “encouraging both sides to battle in the streets,” the US Senate Intelligence Committee reported in 2017. This incident exemplified concepts the Natto Team introduced in its “Disinformation Handbook, Part 1”: use of fake “sock-puppet” accounts on both sides of an issue to “astro-turf” social movements. Another Natto Thoughts posting, “Troll Humor,” provides another example of this phenomenon. The incident that the IWC cites — pitting the Islamic community against people with anti-Islamic sentiments — is particularly timely in 2024; passions inflamed by the Mideast conflict provide ripe ground for sowing discord within many countries, as the Natto Team has pointed out .

The IWC authors also argue that “future Russian foreign-targeted OIEs appear to be shifting toward proxy operations, including semi-independent and strategically-chosen influencers on social media”; it cites a recent NATO report describing the Kremlin’s information strategy with the thought-provoking term “strategy without design.” The Natto Team has described the Russian government’s deniable use of semi-independent loyalists in cyberspace as “throwing spaghetti at the wall” and explored one corner of this world in the two-part report on the “Solntsepek” social media persona. 

Another good overview of Russian information confrontation doctrine is “Rivalry in the Information Sphere,” a 2022 report from the RAND Corporation, a US-based research organization.

“The New Climate Denial: How social media platforms and content producers profit by spreading new forms of climate denial” 

This new report by the Center for Countering Digital Hate, an NGO, uses artificial intelligence to analyze YouTube content going back to 2018. It finds a trend that it describes as “New Denial.” Unlike “Old Denial postings” that claimed global warming was not happening or that humans were not causing it, “New Denial” claims that “The impacts of global warming are beneficial or harmless; Climate solutions won’t work; [and] Climate science and the climate movement are unreliable.” Such denialism “seeks to undermine the solutions to mitigating the climate crisis and delay political action,” the authors write. 

CCDH chief executive Imran Ahmed summed it up, “The people that we've been looking at, they've gone from saying climate change isn't happening to now saying, 'Hey, climate change is happening but there is no hope. There are no solutions’." (The attitude he describes resembles the “Politics of Catastrophe” attitude that historian Timothy Snyder has warned against – see the Natto Thoughts posting “History and Hope.” The CCDH authors call on YouTube parent company Google to “update its policy on climate denial content to reflect New Denial” and urged all digital platforms to “demonetize and de-amplify climate denial content.” 

“Libraries Fight to Stop Election Disinformation Ahead of November”

This January 25 report on the Government Technology website reports that the American Library Association (ALA) and the Poynter Institute’s MediaWise program are developing simple lesson plans for libraries to train readers to “sort online fact from fiction.” The ALA is preparing to launch a test version of a toolkit including videos and lesson plans that could ultimately reach tens of thousands of libraries. Particularly aimed at older adults, who often seek help at libraries for simple technical tasks, the toolkit will “teach librarians how to teach older adults how to open a tab and how to create an effective keyword search,” MediaWise Director Alex Mahadevan, because, “if you just tell someone, 'Hey, if you hear something in the [political] debate last night, just Google it,’ it actually backfires and they’ll find more misinformation.”

Mahadevan continues, “My big worry this year is … people becoming so skeptical that they just throw everything out and they don't even bother to fact-check — they just don't believe anything that they see.” The Natto Team discussed this “liar’s dividend” here and here and discussed election-year cynicism here.

Update March 1 2024: Provided additional links to previous Natto Thoughts postings on the Wagner mercenary group.