Russian crisis actors in Ukraine; China’s “Old Friend” Henry Kissinger visits; Russian nuclear saber-rattling; China’s Law on Foreign Relations; Cyber risks in solar equipment

What We’re Reading, Hearing, and Watching -- July 27, 2023

Ex-Prigozhin Employees Detail Use of Actors in False Stories Used to Justify Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine since 2014 has relied heavily on claims of  “genocide” by Ukrainian nationalists against Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine. Some of the most striking stories—such as a woman who claimed to have seen Ukrainian nationalists crucifying a child—were staged by actors. A July 14 article in Ukrainian periodical Euromaidan Press provides details from Russian independent journalists’ reports citing former employees of now-disgraced Russian mercenary leader and propagandist Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Natto Thoughts has discussed Russian disinformation in the reports “Putin: The Spy as Hero,” “Stymied in Ukraine, Putin’s Government Resorts to Covert Sabotage and Panic-Mongering in the West,” and “Troll Humor.”

Henry Kissinger, an Old Friend of the Chinese People, Goes to China

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s private visit to China on July 18 has been seen as a US effort to “defrost China ties.” Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Kissinger and told him that “the Chinese people will always remember you.” This warm welcome shows that China “is reaching outside official diplomatic channels to broaden the reach of its message and try to influence Washington’s thinking,” as the New York Time reported. Before Kissinger met Xi, he met with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who is under US sanctions and refused to meet his US counterpart previously. Kissinger advocated “both sides need to show wisdom, cooperate and develop together. The militaries should strengthen communication, do their best to create positive results for the development of bilateral relations, and maintain world peace and stability.” Natto Thoughts previously analyzed why China has a lack of interest in military-to-military communication with the US and suggested it draws on cultural difference and shows China’s obsessive focus on solving the Taiwan issue according to its own interest. At the Kissinger and Li meeting, minister Li pointed out “friendly communication” between the two countries had been “destroyed” because “some people in the United States have not been moving in the same direction as China.” It looks like China is still playing the blame game, even as an old US friend of China has been pulling strings. To talk or not to talk, that is still a question.

Russian Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Neither Empty Bluff Nor Imminent Armageddon

“In June 2023, Russia’s expert community engaged in a public debate about the wisdom of preemptive nuclear use,” security analyst Hanna Notte reported in a July 18 posting on the “War on the Rocks” security blog . She noted that most participants opposed preemptive nuclear strikes but that some expressed “an urgent need to restore Russia’s nuclear coercive reputation.” Notte concluded, “Western societies may well have to live with recurrent spikes of nuclear signaling for a long period to come. Those spikes should neither be discarded as mere “bluff” nor be read as indicative of Russia’s imminent resort to nuclear weapons. Rather, nuclear signaling will always need to be contextualized” in terms of how Russian leaders perceive the dynamics of conflicts and the needs for deterrence and escalation management. Andrey Baklitsky opined for the Carnegie Endowment on International Peace that the discussion on nuclear weapons use“was really a discussion about how Moscow can extricate itself from the difficult situation in which it finds itself—and what price it is willing to pay for a victory.”

China’s Law on Foreign Relations, Rule by Law or Rule of Law

A new Law on Foreign Relations took effect in China on July 1, 2023. The official explainer described the law as intended to mend the gaps in laws “concerning safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests … [to] help China more effectively deal with risks and challenges.” (hxxp://en.people[.]cn/n3/2023/0630/c90000-20038171.html) The law promotes China’s development of foreign trade and inbound and outbound foreign investment. Specifically, the law mentions promoting “high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).” Natto Team judges this likely indicates the BRI, China’s global infrastructure development strategy, will continue beyond its original completion year of 2049. Indeed, the Foreign Relations Law “anchors Chinese President Xi Jinping appears ’s long-standing aspiration to build a China-centric global order that will challenge the framework established by the US-led Western Alliance since the end of World War II,” Dr. Willy Wo-Lap Lam, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, speculated.

The Foreign Relations Law also turned Xi’s signature policies into formal legislation, explained an Economist article entitled “Rule by law, with Chinese characteristics.” In particular, one of .  Xi’s cherished slogans is “依法治国” (yifazhiguo). This phrase refers to “rule by law,” referring to  professional governance by officials following standardized procedures. Laws can enjoy more legitimacy than other decision-making alternatives. However, this does not mean the “rule of law,” because “Xi denounces judicial independence and the separation of powers as dangerous foreign ideas.” The Foreign Relations Law also signals that China can impose legal sanctions on foreign entities “who displease Mr Xi’s China.” After all, a law also means obligations and punishment if violated.

Renewable Energy Cyber Risks from Solar Inverters

As US power grids increasingly incorporate solar panels and other renewable energy, new risks arise, according to speakers at a July 18 US Congressional hearing. Such systems often incorporate inverters to convert electric currents and adjust loads. Much of this equipment comes from China and could be used to conduct attacks on the grid. The Australian government is also concerned about “the potential threat from Chinese solar inverters” and was working to “reduce the reliance on ‘high-risk vendors’ to provide vital solar technology. Chinese companies dominate 58 percent of the Australian inverter market.